Analysis and Results

Important

• This section describes the steps Analysis and Results steps of the Argentina Transport Risk Analysis (ATRA)
• To implement the ATRA without any changes in existing codes, all data described here should be created and stored exactly as indicated below

Mapping Flows onto Networks

Purpose:

• Map the national-scale OD node level matrix values to network paths

  • For all transport modes at national scale
  • Estimate 2 values - A MIN and a MAX value of flows between each selected OD node pair
  • Based on MIN-MAX generalised costs estimates

Execution:

• Load data as described in Topological network requirements and OD matrices requirements
• For road, rail, port OD matrices run atra.analysis.flow_mapping

Result:

• Store OD flow paths in csv outputs in /results/flow_mapping_paths/
• Store total OD flows on edges in csv files in /results/flow_mapping_combined/
• Optional - Store OD flows on edges in shapefiles in /results/flow_mapping_shapefiles/

• csv files in /results/flow_mapping_paths/ contain attributes:

  • origin_id - String node ID of Origin
  • destination_id - String node ID of Destination
  • origin_province - String name of Province of Origin node ID
  • destination_province - String name of Province of Destination node ID
  • min_edge_path - List of string of edge IDs for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_edge_path - List of string of edge IDs for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_distance - Float values of estimated distance for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_distance - Float values of estimated distance for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_time - Float values of estimated time for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_time - Float values of estimated time for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_gcost - Float values of estimated generalised cost for paths with minimum generalised cost flows
  • max_gcost - Float values of estimated generalised cost for paths with maximum generalised cost flows
  • min_total_tons - Float values of estimated daily minimum total tonnages for all industries bettween OD pair
  • max_total_tons - Float values of estimated daily maximum total tonnages for all industries bettween OD pair
  • industry_columns - All daily tonnages of industry columns given in the OD matrix data for specific sectors

• csv files in /results/flow_mapping_combined/ contain attributes:

  • edge_id - String edge ID
  • min_total_tons - Float values of estimated daily minimum total tonnages on edge
  • max_total_tons - Float values of estimated daily maximum total tonnages on edge
  • commodity/industry_columns - All total daily tonnages of commodity/industry columns on edge

Hazard Exposure

Purpose:

• Intersect hazards and network line and point geometries with hazatd polygons

  • Write final results to Shapefiles

• Collect network-hazard intersection attributes

  • Combine with boundary Polygons to collect network-hazard-boundary intersection attributes
  • Write final results to an Excel sheet

Execution:

• Load data as described in Topological network requirements and Preparing Hazard Data, and Administrative areas with statistics data requirements
• Run atra.analysis.hazards_networks_intersections
• Run atra.analysis.hazards_network_intersections_results_collect

Result:

• Store shapefile outputs in the directory /results/networks_hazards_intersection_shapefiles/

• All hazard-edge intersection shapefiles with attributes:

  • edge_id - String name of intersecting edge ID
  • length - Float length of intersection of edge LineString and hazard Polygon
  • geometry - LineString geometry of intersection of edge LineString and hazard Polygon

• All hazard-node intersection shapefile with attributes:

  • node_id - String name of intersecting node ID
  • geometry - Point geometry of intersecting node ID

• Store summarised results in csv files in path /results/hazard_scenarios/

• csv files of network-hazard-boundary intersection with attributes:

  • edge_id/node_id - String name of intersecting edge ID or node ID
  • length - Float length of intersection of edge LineString and hazard Polygon: Only for edges
  • province_id - String/Integer ID of Province
  • province_name - String name of Province
  • department_id - String/Integer ID of Department
  • department_name - String name of Department
  • hazard_type - String name of hazard type
  • model - String name of hazard model
  • year - String name of hazard year
  • climate_scenario - String name of hazard scenario
  • probability - Float/String value of hazard probability
  • min_depth - Integer value of minimum value of flood depth of exposure
  • max_depth - Integer value of maximum value of flood depth of exposure

Combine hazard scenarios for risk weights

Purpose

• Combine failure scenarios across probability levels into single value per hazard type, scenario, network edges
• The risk weights are the sum of probability*exposure for each hazard type intersecting network edges

Execution

• Load results from Hazard exposure and Topological network requirements
• Run atra.analysis.collect_network_hazard_scenarios_national

Result

• Combined scenarios in results/network_stats/{mode}_hazard_intersections_risk_weights.csv

  • edge_id/bridge_id - string, name of failed edge
  • hazard_type - string, name of hazard
  • model - string, name of hazard model (if any)
  • climate_scenario - string, name of climate scenario (if any)
  • year - integer, year of hazard data
  • edge_length - float, length of edge
  • min/max_height - float, hazard height (if any)
  • min/max_exposure_percent - float, percentage of edge exposed to hazard
  • min/max_duration_wt - float, duration weight
  • min/max_exposure_length - float, length of edge exposed to hazard
  • risk_wt - float, risk weight
  • dam_wt - float, damage weight

Network Failure Analysis

Purpose:

• Failure analysis of edges in invidiual networks

  • To estimate flow isolations and rerouting effects on same network

• Failure analysis of edges in networks with multi-modal options

  • To estimate flow isolations and rerouting effects with multi-modal options

Execution:

• Load network and flow excel data as described in Topological network requirements, Mapping Flows onto Networks, and failure scenarios from Hazard exposure
• For all networks failure analysis run atra.analysis.failure_estimation
• For networks failure analysis with multi-modal options run atra.analysis.multi_modal_failure_estimation

Result:

• Store csv outputs in the directory /results/failure_results/
• Optional - Store shapefile outputs in /results/failure_shapefiles/

• All failure scenarios results in /results/failure_results/all_fail_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • origin_id - String node ID of Origin of disrupted OD flow
  • destination_id - String node ID of Destination of disrupted OD flow
  • origin_province - String name of Province of Origin node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • destination_province - String name of Province of Destination node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_distance - Float value of estimated distance of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_time - Float value of estimated time of OD journey before disruption
  • min/max_gcost - Float value of estimated travel cost of OD journey before disruption
  • new_cost - Float value of estimated cost of OD journey after disruption
  • new_distance - Float value of estimated distance of OD journey after disruption
  • new_path - List of string edge IDs of estimated new route of OD journey after disruption
  • new_time - Float value of estimated time of OD journey after disruption
  • dist_diff - Float value of Post disruption minus per-disruption distance
  • time_diff - Float value Post disruption minus per-disruption timee
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float value of estimated change in rerouting cost
  • industry_columns - Float values of all daily tonnages of industry columns along disrupted OD pairs
  • min/max_total_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along disrupted OD pairs

• Isolated OD scenarios - OD flows with no rerouting options in /results/failure_results/isolated_od_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • origin_province - String name of Province of Origin node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • destination_province - String name of Province of Destination node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • industry_columns - Float values of all daily tonnages of industry columns along disrupted OD pairs
  • min/max_total_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along disrupted OD pairs

• Rerouting scenarios - OD flows with rerouting options in /results/failure_results/rerouting_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • o_region - String name of Province of Origin node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • d_region - String name of Province of Destination node ID of disrupted OD flow
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float value of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_total_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages along disrupted OD pairs

• Min-max combined scenarios - Combined min-max results along each edge in /results/failure_results/minmax_combined_scenarios/

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_total_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages affected by disrupted edge

• Shapefile min-max combined scenarios

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_total_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages affted by disrupted edge
  • geometry - LineString geomtry of edges

Macroeconomic loss Analysis

Purpose:

• Macroeconomic losses analysis due to edge failures in networks

  • To estimate economic impacts of flow isolations/disruptions
  • To understand the wider economic impacts of these disruptions

Execution:

• Load data described in Macroeconomic Data and OD matrices requirements
• To create the multiregional input-output table for Argentina, run atra.mrio.run_mrio
• To perform the loss analysis, run atra.mria.run_mria

Result:

• Store the new multiregional input-output table in /data/economic_IO_tables/output_data/

  • files IO_ARGENTINA.xlsx contain:

    • Sheetname T with the full multiregional table
    • Sheetname labels_T with the column and row labels of matrix T
    • Sheetname FD with the final demand columns of the new table
    • Sheetname labels_FD with the column labels of matrix FD
    • Sheetname ExpROW with the export to the Rest of the World columns of the new table
    • Sheetname labels_ExpROW with the column labels of matrix ExpROW
    • Sheetname VA with the value added rows of the new table
    • Sheetname labels_VA with the row labels of matrix VA

• Store csv files in /results/economic_failure_losses/summarized/

• All summarized files have the following attributes:

  • edge_id - String edge IDs
  • total_losses - Value of the total economic losses due to the disruption of the corresponding edge ID

• Store csv files in /results/economic_failure_losses/od_region_losses/

• All od_losses file have the following attributes:

  • edge_id - String edge IDs
  • region - String name of the region
  • dir_losses - Value of the direct losses due to the diruption of the corresponding edge ID in the corresponding region
  • total_losses - Value of the total losses due to the diruption of the corresponding edge ID in the corresponding region
  • ind_losses - Value of the indirect losses due to the diruption of the corresponding edge ID in the corresponding region

Combining Network Failure and Macroeconomic loss Results

Purpose:

• Combine macroeconomic loss estimates with rerouting losses

Execution:

• Load data described in Failure Analysis and Macroeconomic loss analysis
• Run atra.analysis.economic_failure_combine_national

Result:

• Store csv files in /results/failure_results/minmax_combined_scenarios/

• Files with names single_edge_failures_minmax_national_{mode}_{x}_percent_disrupt.csv or single_edge_failures_minmax_national_{mode}_{x}_percent_disrupt_multi_modal.csv or single_edge_failures_minmax_national_{mode}_{x}_percent_modal_shift.csv contain

  • edge_id - String name or list of failed edges
  • no_access - Boolean 1 (no reroutng) or 0 (rerouting)
  • min/max_tr_loss - Float values of change in rerouting cost
  • min/max_total_tons - Float values of total daily tonnages affected by disrupted edge
  • min/max_econ_loss - Float values of total daily macroeconomic losses
  • min/max_econ_impact - Float values of sum of transport loss and macroeconomic loss

Estimating the bridge flows and failure losses

Purpose:

• Estimate the flows and failure losses on the national-roads bridges
• This done after all road failure analysis is performed because bridges results are estimated through the road failures

Execution:

• Run atra.analysis.failure_estimation_bridges

Result:

• Creates outputs for bridges similar to the ones explained in Mapping Flows onto Networks
• Creates outputs for bridges similar to the ones explained in Combining Network Failure and Macroeconomic loss Results

Adaptation

Purpose:

• Generate adaption scenarios/strategies and examine their costs, benefits, net present values and benefit-cost ratios
• For roads and bridges, based on different types of hazards, road assets and climate-change conditions

Execution:

• Load data described in Topological network requirements, Combining Network Failure and Macroeconomic loss Results, and Adaptation Options
• Common functions are in atra.adaptation_options
• Run atra.analysis.adaptation_analysis

Result:

• Store results as excel sheets in /results/adaptation_results/

• All adaptation results have the following attributes:

  • edge_id/bridge_id - string, edge or bridges IDs
  • hazard_type - string, names of hazard types
  • model - string, names of hazard models
  • climate_scenario - string, names of climate scenarios
  • year - integer, values of year of hazard climate models
  • width - float, edge widths
  • edge_length - float, edge lengths
  • min/max_depth - float, heights of hazard exposure - if flooding
  • min/max_exposure_percent - float, percent of edge length exposed to hazard
  • min/max_duration_wt - float, duration of disruption of edge
  • min/max_exposure_length - float, edge length exposed to hazard
  • risk_wt - float, weight given to estimating expected annual losses
  • dam_wt - float, weight given to estimating expected annual damage costs
  • min/max_econ_impact - float, minimum/maximum economic impact
  • min/max_benefit - float, minimum/maximum benefit
  • min/max_ini_adap_cost - float, minimum/maximum initial adaptation cost
  • min/max_tot_adap_cost - float, minimum/maximum total adaptation cost
  • min/max_bc_ratio - float, minimum/maximum benefit cost ratio
  • min/max_bc_diff - float, minimum/maximum benefit cost difference
  • Attributes specific to the roads or bridges

Processing outputs and plots

Purpose:

• Several scripts are written to generate statistics and plots to process results
• These codes are very specific to the kinds of data and outputs produced from the analysis
• See the scripts with atra.stats and atra.plot